| 2025/35 | LEM Working Paper Series | ||||||||||||||||
|
The Environmental Smile Curve: Input-Output evidence on the Pollution Haven Hypothesis |
|||||||||||||||||
|
Giovanni Dosi, Federico Riccio and Maria Enrica Virgillito |
|||||||||||||||||
| Keywords | |||||||||||||||||
|
Smile Curve, Ecological Economics, Global Value Chain, Embodied emissions, Environmental and Income Inequality.
|
|||||||||||||||||
| JEL Classifications | |||||||||||||||||
|
F14; F18; F63; F64; O44; Q54; Q56.
|
|||||||||||||||||
| Abstract | |||||||||||||||||
|
This paper examines how the fragmentation of production across Global
Value Chains (GVCs) generates both economic and environmental
inequalities. Building on the "smile curve" framework (Mudambi, 2008;
Meng et al., 2020), we show that developing countries specialize in
low-value-added, high-emission production stages, while advanced
economies capture high-value, low-emission activities like R&D and
design (Riccio et al., 2025). Using OECD ICIO and CO2 emissions data,
we demonstrate that GVC integration exacerbates a "double harm":
production workers -particularly in middle-stage manufacturing- face
wage suppression, while these same stages exhibit higher carbon
intensity per unit of value added. This aligns with the Pollution
Haven Hypothesis (Cole, 2004), as emissions are displaced to regions
with weaker regulations. Our analysis reveals an environmental smile
curve, where environmental and economic downgrading co-occur in middle
segments of GVCs, reinforcing global inequalities. These disparities
intensify with deeper GVC penetration, challenging the decoupling
narrative of green growth. By integrating labour and emissions data,
we provide novel evidence of how GVCs structurally embed unequal
ecological and economic burdens.
|
Downloads
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||||||